Canada’s luxury real estate market eased into spring with modest sales gains across key metropolitan cities, as the dynamic between prospective home sellers and buyers improved, and pricing expectations continued to come into alignment. Despite strengthening consumer confidence and an increase in early-stage market engagement in the initial months of 2024, the expectation of additional property listings supply and potential interest rate declines prompted some buyers and sellers to defer transactions into the spring market. As a result, the country’s major metropolitan areas are expected to see a moderate improvement in sales activity across the luxury and conventional markets in the months ahead.

“Over the past two years, as conventional and luxury real estate market conditions softened under the influence of climbing interest rates and changes to taxes and regulations relating to home ownership, persistent tension defined the interactions between home sellers holding onto lofty pricing expectations from previous peaks, and buyers seeking properties priced for the current market. This stand-off slowed transactional momentum in several of Canada’s major metropolitan luxury real estate markets in 2023, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, where hyper-inflation of luxury housing prices was the previous norm,” says Don Kottick, President and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “Luxury market dynamics at the start of 2024 reflect a progressive shift in consumer psychology: sellers are now engaging in the market with more realistic pricing strategies, and in some cases, greater motivation to sell. This is setting the stage for productive negotiations with buyers and investors. We expect to see higher transactional volumes and improved market fluidity throughout the spring market.”

According to Kottick, Alberta’s luxury real estate market has continued to defy national trends and outperform other major metropolitan areas as its major cities, Calgary and Edmonton, continue to attract new residents motivated by favourable costs of living, comparatively affordable top-tier home prices and a dynamic business climate.

Toronto
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: Spring 2024 State of Luxury Report, consumer dynamics in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) evolved in the first quarter of 2024, setting the stage for measured sales gains and a balanced market this spring. As the price expectations of home sellers and prospective buyers came into better alignment, both pre-transactional and sales activity increased across the region’s luxury market. As a result, residential real estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) between January 1–March 31 climbed 18% year-over-year from the first quarter of 2023. In these preliminary months of the year, there were no property sales over $10 million recorded on Multiple Listings Service (MLS), in contrast to the single property sold in the same period of 2024. Overall GTA residential sales over $1 million rose 11% year-over-year.

Vancouver
Vancouver’s luxury residential real estate market experienced a notable increase in pre-transactional activity in the first quarter of 2024, as consumer and real estate industry confidence continued to strengthen within a market that remained in balance. However, a significant cohort of prospective purchasers continued to await a wider selection of property listings inventory in the spring market to follow. As a result, residential sales over $4 million were down 17% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024, with none of these recorded over $10 million on MLS compared to four transactions in the first quarter of 2023. Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales were largely on par with previous year’s levels, with a marginal 1% year-over-year shortfall.

Montréal
Luxury sales activity in Montreal reflected a stronger-than-anticipated start to 2024, as residential sales over $1 million between January 1–March 31 increased 53% year-over-year within a market that maintained balanced conditions overall. Residential real estate sales over $4 million were on par with first-quarter 2023 levels at eight units sold.

Calgary
Record in-migration, a bold economy and soaring end-consumer and investor confidence in housing continued to strengthen Calgary’s luxury real estate market performance in the first quarter of 2024. Between January 1–March 31, residential sales over $1 million surged 63% year-over-year, positioning the city as one of Canada’s most dynamic and top-performing luxury markets. $4 million-plus sales were also up year-over-year in the first quarter to two properties sold, in contrast to the quiet market experienced in the first quarter of 2023.

*Disclaimer
The information contained in this report references market data from MLS boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada or Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document

March reflects strong seller's market and price increases

City of Calgary, April 1, 2024 – March sales rose to 2,664 units, a 10 per cent year-over-year gain and much higher than long-term trends. While new listings did pick up over last month, the 3,172 units were still below what we typically see in March and not enough relative to sales to drive any change in the supply situation. In March, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84 per cent, and the months of supply fell below one month.

“We have not seen March conditions this tight since 2006, which is also the last time we reported high levels of interprovincial migration and a months-of-supply below one month," said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Moreover, we are entering the third consecutive year of a market favouring the seller as the two-year spike in migration has driven up demand and contributed to the drop in re-sale and rental supply. Given supply adjustments take time, it is not a surprise that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices.” 

Inventory levels have declined across properties priced below $1,000,000, with the steepest declines occurring for homes priced below $500,000. In March, there were 2,532 units in inventory, 22 per cent lower than last year and half the levels we traditionally see in March.

In March, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price rose to $597,600, a two per cent gain over last month and nearly 11 per cent higher than last year. Prices have increased across all property types, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring for the relatively more affordable row and apartment-style homes.   

Detached home sales rose in March but were likely limited by the level of new listings coming onto the market. New listings in March were 1,386 units, compared to the 1,151 sales, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to rise to 83 per cent. Inventories also remained relatively stable compared to last month but were 24 per cent lower than last year’s levels and nearly 60 per cent lower than long-term trends for March. Inventory levels dropped across all price ranges, but the most significant fall was in the lower price point. Overall, 71 per cent of the available inventory in March was priced above $700,000. 

Low inventories compared to sales caused the months of supply to drop below one month, driving further price gains. The unadjusted detached benchmark price rose to $739,700, a monthly gain of nearly three per cent and a year-over-year gain of 14 per cent. The largest year-over-year gains occurred in the most affordable North East and East districts.

Semi-Detached

Supply availability continues to weigh on the semi-detached sector of the market. In March, 260 new listings were met with 250 sales, causing the sale-to-new listings ratio to rise to 96 per cent. This prevented inventories from improving, and the months of supply dropped below one month. Inventory declines have been driven mainly by properties priced below $600,000.

Limited supply and growing demand drove further price gains in March. The unadjusted benchmark price reached $658,000, nearly three per cent higher than last month and a 14 per cent gain over last March. Prices rose across all districts in the city, with year-over-year gains ranging from a low of 11 per cent in the highest-priced area of the City Centre to 25 per cent in the lowest-priced market in the East district.

Both sales and new listings rose in March. However, with 536 new listings and 449 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84 per cent, preventing any significant monthly change in inventory levels. With 355 units available, inventory levels were 12 per cent below last year’s and 53 per cent below long-term trends for March. The decline in inventory levels was driven by properties priced below $400,000, as inventory levels rose 35 per cent for units priced above $400,000. 

The unadjusted benchmark price trended up in March, reaching $448,700, a monthly gain of nearly three per cent and over 20 per cent higher than levels reported at this time last year. The higher-priced City Centre reported the slowest growth in benchmark prices, with the highest growth reported in the city's most affordable districts.

Sales in March reached 814 units, contributing to the first quarter’s record-high sales of 1,940 units, nearly 31 per cent higher than last year. New listings also improved throughout the first three months of the year, but with a March sales-to-new-listings ratio of 82 per cent and a months-of-supply of one month, conditions favoured apartment condominium sellers. 

Demand for lower-priced homes has supported the growth of apartment-style properties, but the tight conditions have also contributed to further price gains. In March, the benchmark prices reached $337,700, over two per cent higher than last month and 17 per cent higher than levels reported last March.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

March reported 203 sales and 218 new listings. While both new listings and sales improved, with a sales-to-new listings ratio of 93 per cent, inventory levels were 22 per cent below last year and 56 per cent below typical March levels. 

With less than one month of supply, it is not surprising that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In March, the benchmark price reached $540,400, a monthly gain of two per cent and a year-over-year increase of over nine per cent. Prices improved across all property types, with stronger year-over-year gains for the relatively lower-priced row and apartment-style products.

Following a slower start to the year, sales in March rose to nearly the same level of new listings coming onto the market, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio up to 99 per cent. This also contributed to further declines in inventory levels, and the months of supply dropped to just over one month. 

As of March, the total residential benchmark price reached $555,300, a monthly gain of over one per cent and a year-over-year increase of nearly 12 per cent. Prices rose across all property types, and detached prices pushed above $650,000 for the first time.

Okotoks continues to struggle with supply as the 71 new listings that came on the market this month were met with 65 sales, preventing any improvement in inventory levels. There were only 54 units available in March, a year-over-year decline of 10 per cent and nearly 70 per cent below long-term trends for the month. 

Limited supply and strong sales caused the months of supply to fall below one month, and March was the lowest March reported since 2006. Persistently tight conditions drove further price growth this month, as the total residential benchmark price rose to $610,700, a monthly gain of one per cent and a year-over-year increase of nine per cent. Prices have been rising for all property types, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring for semi-detached and row properties.

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The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) is pleased to announce the release of its highly anticipated 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report. This comprehensive report, prepared by CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie, offers a detailed analysis of Calgary's economic and housing market trends and surrounding areas for the upcoming year.
 
CREB® Unveils 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report

The report delves into the impact of rising lending rates on the housing sector, as buyers looked for more affordable housing options, and some potential sellers held back from listing to navigate the challenges posed by higher lending rates.
 
Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie underscores this dynamic, stating, "Despite higher rates, 2023 was a year of relatively strong sales thanks to a robust labour market and strong migration. The challenge was limited supply, especially for low-priced homes with the strongest demand. This resulted in significant price growth with the largest gains in our lowest-priced homes.”
 
As the report looks ahead to 2024, Lurie anticipates another strong year for sales, stating, "We expect potential buyers, who were on the sidelines due to limited supply choices, to re-enter the market as lending rates ease and listings improve. At the same time, interprovincial migration and a healthy labour market should continue to support stronger sales activity.”
 
Supply remains an issue this year, but gains in new home starts and new listings are expected to support some modest gains.
 
“Conditions are not expected to be as tight as in 2023," Lurie said, "but supply growth takes time, and sellers’ market conditions are expected to persist through the spring, driving further price growth in 2024.”
 
Supply growth is anticipated to be driven mainly by upper price ranges, decelerating the pace of price growth for higher-priced properties. Meanwhile, lower-priced properties are expected to face continued tight conditions, contributing to sustained price gains.
 
The Calgary Real Estate Board remains committed to providing valuable insights to industry professionals and the public, fostering informed decision-making in the ever-evolving real estate landscape.
 
Click here for the full CREB^® 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report.

Strong migration and low supply drive Calgary housing prices in 2023

Sales in 2023 did ease relative to last year's peak, but with 27,416 sales, levels were still far higher than long-term trends and activity reported before the pandemic. While sales stayed relatively strong, there was a notable shift in activity toward more affordable apartment condominiums style homes.

“Higher lending rates dampened housing demand this year, but thanks to strong migration levels, housing demand remained relatively strong, especially for affordable options in our market,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “At the same time, supply levels were low compared to the demand throughout the year, resulting in stronger than expected price growth.”

Inventory levels were persistently below long-term trends for the city throughout most of the year, averaging a 44 per cent decline over the 10-year average. We also saw the months of supply remain well below two months throughout most of the year across homes priced below $1,000,000.

The persistently tight conditions contributed to our city's new record high price. While the average annual benchmark price growth did slow from 12 per cent in 2022 to nearly six per cent growth in 2023, the price growth was still relatively strong especially compared to some markets in the country. 

Detached

With an annual decline of nearly 20 per cent, the detached market saw the most significant decline in sales activity. While sales did improve for homes priced above $700,000, limited supply choices in the lower price ranges caused consumers to turn to alternative housing styles. Despite some recent gains in higher-priced new listings, inventories have remained near record lows, and the months of supply have remained relatively low throughout 2023.

The persistently tight market conditions have supported further price growth for detached homes, albeit at a slower pace than last year. On average, the benchmark price rose by nearly eight per cent in 2023, with the most significant gains occurring in the city's most affordable districts.
 

Semi-Detached

Like the detached sector, year-over-year sales growth since May was not enough to offset the pullbacks at the beginning of the year, leaving 2023 sales down by 10 per cent. The decline in sales was driven by pullbacks for homes priced under $500,000, while sales improved for higher-priced properties. The decline in the lower range was primarily due to limited supply choices, preventing stronger sales.

Persistently tight market conditions this year caused prices to trend up throughout most of the year. On an annual basis, the benchmark price rose by seven per cent over last year—a slower gain than the 12 per cent reported in 2022, but still relatively strong. Price growth ranged from a low of six per cent in the city centre to over 16 per cent in the east district.
 

Row

Limited supply choices in the lower price ranges contributed to the pullback in sales in 2023. Annual sales declined by over 11 per cent despite rising sales for homes priced above $400,000. While new listings did show signs of improving in the second half of the year, all of the gains were reported in the higher price ranges, causing relatively more balanced conditions in the upper price ranges versus the sellers’ market conditions in the lower price ranges.

Conditions favoured the seller throughout the year, supporting an annual benchmark price gain of over 13 per cent. Prices improved across each district, ranging from a low of 11 per cent in the city centre to over 20 per cent price growth in both the North East and East districts.
 

Apartment Condominium

Apartment-style properties were the only property type to report a gain in sales this year, resulting in a record high of 7,884. The growth in sales was possible thanks to the higher starting point for inventory levels and gains in new listings. However, conditions tightened throughout the year, favouring the seller and driving price growth.

Apartment condominium prices finally recovered from their 2014 high earlier this year and have pushed above those levels, reaching a new record high of $321,400 by December. On an annual basis, the 2023 benchmark price rose by over 13 per cent, a faster pace than the annual growth levels reported last year.  

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Primarily due to pullbacks for detached homes, sales in Airdrie declined by 24 per cent over last year's record high. Low inventory levels and a pullback in new listings have somewhat limited sales. While new listings have risen over last year's levels for the past four months, they are still 24 per cent lower than last year. The decline in sales and new listings ensured inventories remained low this year, declining over last year’s and falling to the lowest annual average levels seen since 2006.

For the third year in a row, conditions in Airdrie have generally favoured the seller. This has driven further price gains this year, albeit at a slower pace. On an annual basis, the benchmark price rose by nearly five per cent. This year, the price growth for row and apartment-style properties has been more than double that reported in the detached and semi-detached sectors.
 

Cochrane

Both sales and new listings in Cochrane fell over last year’s levels. However, recent gains in new listings relative to sales did help support some inventory gains. While inventory levels have improved over the low levels reported last year, they remain over 40 per cent below what we traditionally see in the market.

The recent shifts in new listings relative to sales have helped the months of supply stay above two months since September. However, conditions are still relatively tight, and prices continue to rise. While the growth was stronger in the higher-density sectors of the market, the detached benchmark prices increased by four per cent in 2023 over last year.

Okotoks

Supply has been a challenge in Okotoks, impacting sales and prices. While we have seen some improvements lately regarding the level of new listings compared to sales, inventories have remained near record lows and averaged 63 per cent below long-term trends on an annual basis.

Conditions have remained relatively tight throughout most of the year, especially throughout the busier spring season. Despite some monthly variation, prices generally trended up this year and, on an annual basis, rose by over six per cent.
 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

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Increased listings, strong sales, and price growth

New listings in November reached 2,227 units, nearly 40 per cent higher than the exceptionally low levels reported last year at this time. Gains in new listings occurred across most price ranges, but the most significant gains occurred from homes priced over $600,000.

Despite the year-over-year jump in new listings, inventory levels remained low thanks to relatively strong sales. With 1,787 sales in November, the sales to new listings ratio remained high at 80 per cent, and the months of supply remained below two months.

“Like other large cities, new listings have been increasing,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “However, in Calgary, the gains have not been enough to change the low inventory situation thanks to strong demand. Our market continues to favour the seller, driving further price growth.”

As of November, the benchmark price was $572,700, up over last month and nearly 11 per cent higher than November 2022. Year-to-date, the average benchmark price has risen by over five per cent. 

Detached

Limited supply choice for homes priced below $700,000 has been the primary cause of the decline in detached home sales. While November reported a marginal gain over last year, year-to-date sales have declined by 20 per cent. November saw a rise in new listings compared to the previous year, but higher-priced homes drove most gains. This has left the detached market with exceptionally tight conditions for prices below $700,000 and more balanced conditions for higher-priced homes. Overall, the month of supply remains exceptionally low at under two months.

Persistently tight conditions continue to cause further price gains in the detached market. As of November, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $699,500, a slight increase over last month and over 13 per cent higher than last November. While detached home prices are much higher than last year's levels in every district, year-to-date gains are the highest in the most affordable districts of the North East and East. 
 

Semi-Detached

November saw a boost in new listings compared to last year, helping to prevent a year-over-year decline in inventory levels. However, inventory levels are still over 40 per cent below typical levels seen in November. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 77 per cent and a month-of-supply below two months, conditions remain exceptionally tight, especially for homes priced below $700,000. 

Despite tight conditions, benchmark prices remained stable compared to last month. However, at an unadjusted benchmark price of $628,700, prices are still over 12 per cent higher than last year. The year-to-date average benchmark price has risen by nearly seven per cent, with the largest gains occurring in the North East and East districts.
 

Row

New listings rose again this month compared to last year. The 370 new listings were met with 267 sales, and for the first time since 2021, the sales-to-new-listings ratio fell below 75 per cent. The jump in new listings was enough to support a gain in inventory levels compared to last month and last year. While inventories are still nearly half the levels we traditionally see, this did help cause the months of supply to push up to 1.6 months, a significant improvement from the less than one month of supply that has persisted over the past seven months. While conditions are much more balanced in the higher price ranges, there is less than one month of supply for homes priced below $500,000.

Despite the shift away from exceptionally tight conditions, prices still rose over the last month and last year. As of November, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $429,100, 21 per cent higher than last November and an average year-to-date gain of nearly 13 per cent.
 

Apartment Condominium

Thanks to the relative affordability of the apartment-style homes, sales continued to reach record highs in November, contributing to year-to-date sales of 7,487. With one month left in the year, sales have already surpassed last year’s record high. This, in part, was possible thanks to the growth in new listings. While inventory levels are similar to levels reported last year, with less than two months of supply, conditions still favour the seller, placing further upward pressure on prices. 

The unadjusted November benchmark price reached $320,100 in November, a monthly gain of over one per cent and a year-over-year increase of 18 per cent. Year-to-date price gains have occurred across every district in the city, with some of the largest gains arising in the lower-priced North East and East districts.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Gains in November sales were not enough to offset earlier pullbacks, leaving year-to-date sales down by over 26 per cent over last year's record levels. Much of the decline has been driven by the detached market, which has struggled with supply, especially in the lower price ranges. New listings in November did improve over last year's levels. Still, thanks to the gain in sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 96 per cent, preventing any significant shift from the low inventory levels. 

With less than two months of supply, we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In November, the unadjusted benchmark price rose over last month, reaching $524,500, a year-over-year gain of 11 per cent. Year-to-date price gains have been the highest in the apartment sector at 17 per cent, with detached and semi-detached prices rising by nearly six per cent.
 

Cochrane

With 87 new listings and 51 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 59 per cent in November, the first time it fell below 60 per cent since 2020. Higher-priced properties have primarily driven the recent gain in new listings. Improved new listings compared to sales did help support increases in inventory levels. However, November inventory levels remain over 30 per cent below long-term trends.
 
Tight market conditions have supported further price growth in Cochrane. As of November, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $548,600, a monthly gain of over one per cent and a year-over-year increase of 11 per cent. On average, year-to-date benchmark prices have increased across all property types, with the most significant gains occurring in the apartment condominium sector at over seven per cent. 

Okotoks

November saw a boost in new listings, helping support some of the year-over-year gain in sales. The rise in new listings compared to sales also helped support gains in inventory levels. However, inventory levels are nearly half what we would typically see in the market in November. Nonetheless, the shift this month did help push the months of supply up to nearly two months. 

While the months of supply did improve, conditions remained exceptionally tight, and prices continued to trend up this month. As of November, the unadjusted benchmark price was $590,200, a one per cent gain over last month and over eight per cent higher than last November.
 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.