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City of Calgary, July 29, 2021 –

Within the city of Calgary, sales totalled 15,050 units after the first half of the year, the highest levels seen in more than a decade.

“While pent-up demand and low interest rates were expected to support sales growth in 2021, the strength in housing demand has surprised many, especially given the amount of job loss that occurred due to the pandemic,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“With some of that pent-up demand now filled, sales are expected to remain strong as we move through the second half of the year, but they should slow to levels more consistent with longer-term trends.”

Sales are expected to exceed 24,000 units on an annual basis, making 2021 the best year of sales since 2014.

Over the first half of the year, supply gains have not kept pace with demand, resulting in sellers’ market conditions and strong price gains. This is especially true in the detached sector, where benchmark home prices went from $492,000 in January to $537,200 in June. Prices in some segments of the market have finally recovered to 2014 highs.

“Recent price gains have also encouraged more sellers to list their homes, helping alleviate some of the tightest conditions experienced throughout March and April,” said Lurie. “The gains in supply are expected to continue in the second half of the year, eventually supporting more balanced conditions and easing the upward pressure on prices.”

The pace of price growth is expected to slow, but thanks to the gains in the first half of the year, prices are still expected to rise by more than eight per cent on an annual basis in 2021.
 
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Renewed confidence in Canada’s post-pandemic return and economic recovery bolstered gains across the country’s major metropolitan luxury real estate markets through the first half of 2021. As the Bank of Canada reported first-quarter GDP growth at a “robust” 5.6%, the Conference Board of Canada projected a 6.1% expansion of real GDP in 2021, with solid economic recovery expected across every province. Resulting confidence, housing demand and eroding luxury real estate inventory were captured in new data compiled by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada that reflect record-breaking levels of activity and prices across the country’s major luxury markets through the first half of the year.

“The pandemic era reinforced the importance of ‘home’ and ‘space’ to a degree that has never been experienced; we expect this to have a lasting impact across many facets of the Canadian luxury real estate market,” says Don Kottick, President and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “Perhaps most profoundly, there has been a major shift in the psychology of luxury real estate consumers and homeowners. The new reality is that as the perceived value of living space has increased, affluent buyers’ ‘willingness to pay’ for luxury real estate has increased exponentially. Affluent consumers are more prepared to invest in additional space and in next-level architecture and design, whether through upsizing, home renovations or home building. This is elevating the quality and pricing of housing in Canada’s most prestigious neighbourhoods, in many cases, permanently.”

According to Kottick, the impact of pandemic luxury market influences previously reported in Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s 2021 Spring Outlook will continue to cascade across the country’s real estate market in the coming months. Strengthening confidence in a Canadian economic recovery, the anticipated reopening of provincial and national borders to travel and immigration, as well as the continued access to low-cost borrowing and stores of cash savings will empower multiple waves of local and international luxury real estate consumers into the latter half of 2021, driving luxury sales.

 
 
 
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS *
 
Calgary
Luxury real estate activity in Calgary renewed in the first half of 2021 as business, real estate industry and consumer sentiment took on a cautiously optimistic tone with gains in oil and gas prices, and broader vaccine coverage. The $1 million-plus residential real estate market transitioned to more balanced market conditions as sales rose 236% year-over-year from the levels seen in the first half of 2020, albeit unevenly across housing types. While activity recovered across the city’s single-family and attached home markets, with healthy 230% and 338% year-over-year sales gains respectively, condominium sales over $1 million continued to comprise a nominal percentage of the luxury market despite an uptick of 350% to nine units sold in the first half of 2021.

Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
Activity in the Greater Toronto Area (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto and York) luxury residential real estate market eclipsed the superlative performance of other Canadian markets in the first half of 2021, as sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single-family homes) soared 276% year-over-year. Of these,15 ultra-luxury properties sold over $10 million, an increase of 114%, from the first half of 2020. Significant gains were experienced across all luxury housing types, with sales over $4 million for condominiums, attached and single-family homes up 88%, 400% and 290% year-over-year, respectively. Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales surged 217% year-over-year in a market that heavily favoured sellers and fatigued buyers.
 
Vancouver
The tempo of Vancouver’s luxury market also accelerated to a frenetic pace in the first half of 2021, as residential sales over $4 million and $10 million surged 152% and 300% year-over-year, respectively. As in the case of Toronto and Montreal, the performance of the city’s luxury condominium market overcame its initial pandemic stall, with $4 million-plus sales regaining momentum over the spring to achieve a 138% year-over-year gain by the first half of 2021. Meanwhile, $4 million-plus single-family home and attached home sales climbed 152% and 300%, respectively. By mid-year, residential real estate sales over $1 million were up 107% from 2020 levels.

Montreal
Luxury real estate activity in Calgary renewed in the first half of 2021 as business, real estate industry and consumer sentiment took on a cautiously optimistic tone with gains in oil and gas prices, and broader vaccine coverage. The $1 million-plus residential real estate market transitioned to more balanced market conditions as sales rose 236% year-over-year from the levels seen in the first half of 2020, albeit unevenly across housing types. While activity recovered across the city’s single-family and attached home markets, with healthy 230% and 338% year-over-year sales gains respectively, condominium sales over $1 million continued to comprise a nominal percentage of the luxury market despite an uptick of 350% to nine units sold in the first half of 2021.
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Supply trends up but market still favours the seller



City of Calgary, July 2, 2021 –

Calgary’s housing market is showing few signs of letting up, as sales reached 2,915 units in June – a record high for the month.

“It is taking time for supply to catch up with the demand in the market,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“Through the early spring market, many buyers did not have a lot of choice, but the recent improvements in supply are providing more options for those purchasers and supporting the strong sales we continue to see in June. At the same time, gains in inventory are taking some pressure off the market as it starts to trend towards more balanced conditions.”

New listings in June totalled 4,135, the second-highest level ever recorded for the month. This caused inventories to trend up to 6,918 units. While this is higher than longer-term averages, it was balanced by strong sales and the months of supply remained relatively tight at 2.4 months. However, this is still an improvement from earlier in the year when the months of supply was below two.

As the market moves toward more balanced conditions, we are also starting to see the pace of price growth slow. The benchmark home price continued to trend up in June, but the monthly gain slowed to less than one per cent. While the pace of growth is slowing, as of June, the benchmark price was 11 per cent higher than levels recorded last year.


HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached
Despite some modest improvements in inventory levels, strong sales in June have kept the detached sector of the market firmly in sellers’ market conditions.

With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 76 per cent and the months of supply below two months, benchmark home prices continue to rise. The unadjusted detached benchmark price totalled $537,200 in June, nearly one per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than last year’s levels.

Despite the sellers’ market conditions in the detached sector, there is some variation depending on location. The districts with the strongest demand relative to supply are the North, North West, South, South East and East districts. Each of these districts has less than two months of supply in June, which is well below longer-term averages. The tightness in these areas has also resulted in the highest year-over-year price gains.

The City Centre has not experienced the same tight conditions as other districts and is the only district where detached prices have yet to recover from previous highs.

Semi-Detached
The pace of semi-detached sales growth is showing some signs of slowing, but year-to-date sales remain at record highs. New listings have also reached new highs so far this year. However, the growth in sales has outpaced the growth in new listings, preventing any significant shift in inventory levels.

With 592 units in inventory in June, levels have trended up from the start of the year. However, with the months of supply currently sitting at two-and-a-half months, conditions continue to favour the seller.

The persistent sellers’ market conditions have caused benchmark prices to trend up, reaching $427,000 in June. Gains have occurred across all districts so far this year, but the amount of growth has ranged from a low of less than five per cent to a high of nearly 10 per cent. Despite these gains, only the North, West and South East districts have seen prices recover to previous highs.
 
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Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS®System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™.
The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.