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Market Updates

February Housing Market Update
Market Knowledge

February Housing Market Update

Low inventory and high demand drive price gains in February March 1, 2024 Rising Sales and New Listings | Despite a rise in new listings ...

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January 2024 Housing Market Update
Market Knowledge

January 2024 Housing Market Update

January sees strong sales fueled by boost in new listings February 1, 2024 Sales Growth | January sales saw a significant increase ...

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Top-Tier Real Estate 2023: Year in Review
Market Knowledge

Top-Tier Real Estate 2023: Year in Review

Canada’s metropolitan luxury real estate market evolved over the course of 2023 as buyers emerged from the sidelines with newly altered ...

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CREB® 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report
Market Knowledge

CREB® 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report

The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) is pleased to announce the release of its highly anticipated 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region ...

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Style & Design

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Top-Tier Real Estate 2023: Year in Review

Canada’s metropolitan luxury real estate market evolved over the course of 2023 as buyers emerged from the sidelines with newly altered housing preferences and sharpened priorities, as well as negotiating power that steadily increased as the year progressed. Although overall sales activity was subdued by a volley of stressors that ranged from economic and geopolitical shocks to interest rate hikes, persistent inflation and regulatory changes, high-end buyers remained engaged and strategic.  By the end of 2023, as segments of the country’s major metropolitan markets saw softening prices, and an increase in inventory and conditions that leaned in favour of buyers, the collective resilience and preparation of affluent home buyers and investors became apparent. Following years of unyielding constraints on luxury housing supply, affluent buyers and investors were primed to seize opportunities for upward housing mobility in a favourable market with replenished inventory and still-limited competition, foreshadowing strategic sales activity in early 2024.

“In the aftermath of an era marked by soaring housing prices across Canada’s largest cities, the conventional and luxury real estate market continues to shift towards a period of opportunity for home buyers and investors. While prices remained resilient in the country’s most prestigious neighbourhoods for the better part of 2023, those areas in which new property listings began to accumulate are now seeing softening prices, and a greater willingness from sellers to adjust to market realities. Meanwhile, prospective luxury property buyers and investors have been strategically preparing for the right opportunity,” says Don Kottick, President and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.  “As properties are listed by motivated sellers in early 2024, buyers will have more options, considerable negotiating power and will face less competition than in years past. This is a window of opportunity for luxury buyers and ‘up-sizers’ to purchase a home to meet their lifestyle and investment needs before interest rates fall, competition stiffens and the market swings in the opposite direction.”

According to Kottick, market conditions have momentarily shifted the lifestyle and investment preferences of every generation of luxury homebuyer in favour of single family homes across Canada’s largest urban markets. Elevated condominium prices, rising maintenance fees and carrying costs, as well as unpredictable government regulation of the rental market have spurred buyers to assess the relative benefits of single family home ownership. Although softening competition and prices will offer motivated luxury condominium buyers with favourable opportunities in the near-term, Kottick maintains that the fundamentals of Canada’s luxury condominium market remain sound, and demand for developments bearing internationally-acclaimed luxury brands and meeting a global standard for luxury architecture and design will remain particularly resilient. Record-high population growth, demographic pressures, and the attractiveness of a “lock-and-leave” lifestyle will continue to support demand for condominium housing in the longer term.


MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Greater Toronto Area

According to data released by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, luxury sales activity in the Greater Toronto Area (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto and York) remained calm and confident throughout 2023 as high-end buyers strategically repositioned themselves to capitalize on emerging opportunities. Although residential real estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) experienced a 20% year-over-year decline overall, ultra-luxury sales over $10 million on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) were stable compared to 2022 levels with a nominal 5% shortfall. $4 million-plus sales of single family homes were down 22% year-over-year, while attached home and condominium sales over $4 million saw modest annual gains of 8% and 10% respectively. Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales were down 19% year-over-year in 2023.

Vancouver

Vancouver’s luxury real estate market experienced a dramatic transformation over the course of 2023, as single family homes emerged as a focal point for luxury buyers. Despite fluctuating consumer sentiment over the course of the year, residential sales transactions over $4 million closed the year 8% above 2022 levels, while sales over $10 million saw a significant 43% annual increase, buoyed by an uptick in ultra-luxury transactions in the third quarter of the year. Overall residential sales over $1 million fell 5% short of 2022 levels. Although the city’s luxury condominium and attached home sales over $4 million fell 36% and 33% year-over-year respectively, $4 million-plus single family home sales were up 14% year-over-year. Ultra-luxury single family home sales over $10 million on Multiple Listings Service (MLS) increased 36%. Overall in 2023, residential real estate sales over $1 million fell 5% short of 2022 levels.

Calgary

Calgary’s luxury real estate market continued to surpass the performance of Canada’s largest major metropolitan areas in 2023, as buoyant economic prospects, robust job gains and affordable property prices attracted record-setting net interprovincial migration and local housing demand. Positive consumer and investor sentiment set the tone for the city’s top-tier market, and residential sales over $1 million increased 13% year-over-year from 2022 levels. Sales over $4 million gained ground with nine properties sold, up from six properties sold in 2022. $1 million-plus single family and attached homes sales saw 12% and 14% annual sales gains, respectively, while condominium sales over $1 million climbed 26% year-over-year.

Montreal

Luxury sales activity in Montreal was uneven over the course of 2023, with an uptick in activity over the summer months before transitioning to a more balanced market towards the end of the year. $4 million-plus residential real estate sales experienced a 22% annual decline, while sales over $1 million fell 14%. Single family and attached home sales over $1 million were down 14% and 6% year-over-year respectively, while $1 million-plus condominium sales saw a more pronounced 21% annual decline.

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The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) is pleased to announce the release of its highly anticipated 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report. This comprehensive report, prepared by CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie, offers a detailed analysis of Calgary's economic and housing market trends and surrounding areas for the upcoming year.
 
CREB® Unveils 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report

The report delves into the impact of rising lending rates on the housing sector, as buyers looked for more affordable housing options, and some potential sellers held back from listing to navigate the challenges posed by higher lending rates.
 
Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie underscores this dynamic, stating, "Despite higher rates, 2023 was a year of relatively strong sales thanks to a robust labour market and strong migration. The challenge was limited supply, especially for low-priced homes with the strongest demand. This resulted in significant price growth with the largest gains in our lowest-priced homes.”
 
As the report looks ahead to 2024, Lurie anticipates another strong year for sales, stating, "We expect potential buyers, who were on the sidelines due to limited supply choices, to re-enter the market as lending rates ease and listings improve. At the same time, interprovincial migration and a healthy labour market should continue to support stronger sales activity.”
 
Supply remains an issue this year, but gains in new home starts and new listings are expected to support some modest gains.
 
“Conditions are not expected to be as tight as in 2023," Lurie said, "but supply growth takes time, and sellers’ market conditions are expected to persist through the spring, driving further price growth in 2024.”
 
Supply growth is anticipated to be driven mainly by upper price ranges, decelerating the pace of price growth for higher-priced properties. Meanwhile, lower-priced properties are expected to face continued tight conditions, contributing to sustained price gains.
 
The Calgary Real Estate Board remains committed to providing valuable insights to industry professionals and the public, fostering informed decision-making in the ever-evolving real estate landscape.
 
Click here for the full CREB® 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report.

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Strong migration and low supply drive Calgary housing prices in 2023

Sales in 2023 did ease relative to last year's peak, but with 27,416 sales, levels were still far higher than long-term trends and activity reported before the pandemic. While sales stayed relatively strong, there was a notable shift in activity toward more affordable apartment condominiums style homes.

“Higher lending rates dampened housing demand this year, but thanks to strong migration levels, housing demand remained relatively strong, especially for affordable options in our market,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “At the same time, supply levels were low compared to the demand throughout the year, resulting in stronger than expected price growth.”

Inventory levels were persistently below long-term trends for the city throughout most of the year, averaging a 44 per cent decline over the 10-year average. We also saw the months of supply remain well below two months throughout most of the year across homes priced below $1,000,000.

The persistently tight conditions contributed to our city's new record high price. While the average annual benchmark price growth did slow from 12 per cent in 2022 to nearly six per cent growth in 2023, the price growth was still relatively strong especially compared to some markets in the country. 

Detached

With an annual decline of nearly 20 per cent, the detached market saw the most significant decline in sales activity. While sales did improve for homes priced above $700,000, limited supply choices in the lower price ranges caused consumers to turn to alternative housing styles. Despite some recent gains in higher-priced new listings, inventories have remained near record lows, and the months of supply have remained relatively low throughout 2023.

The persistently tight market conditions have supported further price growth for detached homes, albeit at a slower pace than last year. On average, the benchmark price rose by nearly eight per cent in 2023, with the most significant gains occurring in the city's most affordable districts.
 

Semi-Detached

Like the detached sector, year-over-year sales growth since May was not enough to offset the pullbacks at the beginning of the year, leaving 2023 sales down by 10 per cent. The decline in sales was driven by pullbacks for homes priced under $500,000, while sales improved for higher-priced properties. The decline in the lower range was primarily due to limited supply choices, preventing stronger sales.

Persistently tight market conditions this year caused prices to trend up throughout most of the year. On an annual basis, the benchmark price rose by seven per cent over last year—a slower gain than the 12 per cent reported in 2022, but still relatively strong. Price growth ranged from a low of six per cent in the city centre to over 16 per cent in the east district.
 

Row

Limited supply choices in the lower price ranges contributed to the pullback in sales in 2023. Annual sales declined by over 11 per cent despite rising sales for homes priced above $400,000. While new listings did show signs of improving in the second half of the year, all of the gains were reported in the higher price ranges, causing relatively more balanced conditions in the upper price ranges versus the sellers’ market conditions in the lower price ranges.

Conditions favoured the seller throughout the year, supporting an annual benchmark price gain of over 13 per cent. Prices improved across each district, ranging from a low of 11 per cent in the city centre to over 20 per cent price growth in both the North East and East districts.
 

Apartment Condominium

Apartment-style properties were the only property type to report a gain in sales this year, resulting in a record high of 7,884. The growth in sales was possible thanks to the higher starting point for inventory levels and gains in new listings. However, conditions tightened throughout the year, favouring the seller and driving price growth.

Apartment condominium prices finally recovered from their 2014 high earlier this year and have pushed above those levels, reaching a new record high of $321,400 by December. On an annual basis, the 2023 benchmark price rose by over 13 per cent, a faster pace than the annual growth levels reported last year.  

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS


Airdrie

Primarily due to pullbacks for detached homes, sales in Airdrie declined by 24 per cent over last year's record high. Low inventory levels and a pullback in new listings have somewhat limited sales. While new listings have risen over last year's levels for the past four months, they are still 24 per cent lower than last year. The decline in sales and new listings ensured inventories remained low this year, declining over last year’s and falling to the lowest annual average levels seen since 2006.

For the third year in a row, conditions in Airdrie have generally favoured the seller. This has driven further price gains this year, albeit at a slower pace. On an annual basis, the benchmark price rose by nearly five per cent. This year, the price growth for row and apartment-style properties has been more than double that reported in the detached and semi-detached sectors.
 

Cochrane

Both sales and new listings in Cochrane fell over last year’s levels. However, recent gains in new listings relative to sales did help support some inventory gains. While inventory levels have improved over the low levels reported last year, they remain over 40 per cent below what we traditionally see in the market.

The recent shifts in new listings relative to sales have helped the months of supply stay above two months since September. However, conditions are still relatively tight, and prices continue to rise. While the growth was stronger in the higher-density sectors of the market, the detached benchmark prices increased by four per cent in 2023 over last year.


Okotoks

Supply has been a challenge in Okotoks, impacting sales and prices. While we have seen some improvements lately regarding the level of new listings compared to sales, inventories have remained near record lows and averaged 63 per cent below long-term trends on an annual basis.

Conditions have remained relatively tight throughout most of the year, especially throughout the busier spring season. Despite some monthly variation, prices generally trended up this year and, on an annual basis, rose by over six per cent.
 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

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Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS®System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™.
The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.