Top-Tier Real Estate: 2023 Mid-Year State of Luxury Report*
Our latest market report, Top-Tier Real Estate: 2023 Mid-Year State of Luxury Report*, covers the performance of luxury residential real estate sales in Canada’s largest real estate markets during the first half of 2023.
“The Canadian luxury housing market has remained remarkably resilient despite the headwinds of multiple interest rate hikes and unpredictable economic performance, and the second quarter of 2023 marked a turnaround point for consumer activity. Following a year-long period of reconsideration and recalibration, qualified and highly motivated real estate buyers and sellers emerged from the sidelines over the spring, driving a bounce back in luxury market activity,” Don Kottick, President and CEO, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “At the same time, Canadian luxury market performance has started to diverge, at times unpredictably, between major cities, neighbourhoods and housing types. Vancouver and Toronto’s urban luxury single family home markets experienced some of the most pronounced improvements in spring activity; however, inadequate supply continued to frustrate potential sales and to undermine the housing needs of locals. Over the past few years, Calgary has emerged as one of Canada’s most upbeat luxury real estate markets, and in the first half of 2023, its condominium market surpassed expectations with annual percentage sales gains that outstripped other major cities’ performance. In contrast, Montréal’s luxury market is rebalancing to accommodate negotiation and conditions that skew in favour of buyers, particularly in the city’s condominium segment.”
Population gains from in-migration and a buoyant economy strengthened luxury housing demand in Calgary. In the first half of the year, $1 million-plus residential sales fell just 10% short of levels seen in the first half of 2022, while condominium sales over $1 million increased 100%.
Montréal’s luxury market continued to moderate in the first half of 2023, as sales over $4 million pulled back 39% year-over-year, while $1 million-plus sales were down 28%.
The resurgence of active, qualified buyers outstripped scarce luxury housing inventory in Toronto, leading to brisk sales and seller’s market conditions within the city’s single family and attached home segments until the end of May before moderating to balanced conditions mid-year. As luxury real estate sales continued to shift to private and exclusive sales and marketing networks in the first half of 2023, $4 million-plus and $10 million-plus residential sales on Multiple Listings Service (MLS®) saw an annual decline of 32% and 29% in the City of Toronto, and a more significant 35% and 56% decrease across the Greater Toronto Area.
Vancouver’s luxury market experienced a striking uptick in activity in the second quarter of 2023 and was restored to balanced conditions by mid-year. The ultra-luxury single family home market experiencing the most pronounced improvements in both consumer sentiment and sales activity. Overall, residential sales over $10 million increased 38% year-over-year in the first half of 2023, while $4 million-plus sales fell 18%.