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Market Updates

June 2024 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
Market Knowledge

June 2024 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Sales in June reached 2,738, marking a 13 per cent decline from last year’s record high. Although sales improved for homes priced above ...

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May Housing Market Update
Market Knowledge

May Housing Market Update

Calgary home sales remain robust despite supply shortages in lower price ranges June 3, 2024 Resilient Sales with a Slight Dip | May ...

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April Housing Market Update
Market Knowledge

April Housing Market Update

Price growth persists in Calgary as seller's market prevails May 1, 2024 Sales Growth and Market Trends | Despite a slight easing in ...

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2024 TOP TIER REAL ESTATE SPRING REPORT
Market Knowledge

2024 TOP TIER REAL ESTATE SPRING REPORT

Canada’s luxury real estate market eased into spring with modest sales gains across key metropolitan cities, as the dynamic between ...

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Style & Design

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Sales in June reached 2,738, marking a 13 per cent decline from last year’s record high. Although sales improved for homes priced above $700,000, it was not enough to offset the declines reported in the lower price ranges. Despite the easing in June sales, they remain over 17 per cent higher than long-term trends.

“The pullback in sales reflects supply challenges in the lower price ranges, ultimately limiting sales activity,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Inventory in the lower price ranges of each property type continue to fall, providing limited choices for potential purchasers looking for more affordable product. It also continues to be a competitive market for some buyers with over 40 per cent of the homes sold selling over list price.”

This month, new listings also eased relative to sales, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to remain elevated at 72 per cent. Inventory levels did improve over last year’s low levels, primarily due to gains in the higher price ranges. However, with 3,789 units available, levels remain 40 per cent lower than long-term trends.

The modest change in inventory levels helped increase the months of supply. However, at 1.4 months, conditions continue to favor sellers. Persistently tight conditions drove further price gains this month. In June, the unadjusted benchmark price rose to $608,000, a gain over last month and nearly nine per cent higher than last year. Prices rose across all districts, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring in the North East and East districts.

Detached

Gains in higher-priced detached home sales were not enough to offset the pullbacks for homes priced below $700,000, leading to a 16 per cent year-over-year sales drop. Despite the recent pullback, detached home sales for the first half of the year remain in line with levels reported last year. Meanwhile, following several months of gains, new listings eased this month. By the end of June, there were 1,775 detached homes in inventory, an improvement over last year but 45 per cent below long-term trends for the month.

While conditions remain tight in the detached market, we are starting to see better supply and demand balances in the upper end of the market. The months of supply have ranged from a low of one month in the most affordable East district to just over two months in the City Centre. Nonetheless, with less than one and a half months of supply, we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In June, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $767,600, nearly one per cent higher than last month and 12 per cent higher than prices reported last June.
 

Semi-Detached

Following a significant gain last month, new listings pulled back in June relative to sales, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to rise to 76 per cent. While this did not prevent some gains in inventory levels, inventory levels remained nearly half of those traditionally seen in June.

With just over one month of supply, we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In June, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $686,100, a one per cent gain over last month and over 12 per cent higher than levels reported last year. Prices rose across all districts in the city, with the steepest gains occurring in the most affordable areas of the North East and East districts.
 

Row

Like other property types, row home sales slowed in June relative to the high levels achieved over the past two years. A higher pullback in sales compared to new listings caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to fall to 75 per cent, the lowest June level reported since 2021.

However, conditions remain exceptionally tight with one month of supply, especially for properties priced below $600,000. The unadjusted benchmark price trended up in June, reaching $464,600, nearly 17 per cent higher than levels reported last year at this time. While price adjustments have varied depending on location, we continue to see the highest price growth occurring in the most affordable districts. 
 

Apartment Condominium

There were 791 sales in June, a nearly eight per cent decline over last year. The decline in sales was primarily due to the significant pullback for units priced below $300,000. Limited supply choice for lower priced products is preventing stronger sales activity. Despite the monthly pullback, year-to-date apartment sales are up by 13 per cent, and are at record-high levels.

New listings continue to rise relative to sales, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to fall and driving further inventory gains. However, much of the supply growth has occurred for higher-priced properties, resulting in tight conditions at the lower end of the market and more balanced conditions for higher-priced units. Overall prices continued to trend up this month, reaching $344,700, over 17 per cent higher than last year.



REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

June sales remained relatively stable compared to last year at levels that remain well above long-term averages. At the same time, we saw a boost in new listings this month compared to last year. However, with 269 new listings and 209 sales, the sales-to-new-listings ratio remained elevated at 78 per cent, keeping inventories relatively low based on historical standards.

Like Calgary, Airdrie is experiencing the tightest conditions for the most affordable sectors of the market, and prices continue to rise. In June, the unadjusted benchmark price rose to $554,500, nearly one per cent higher than last month and nine per cent higher than last year’s levels. Price growth has been the highest for apartment-style properties.

Cochrane

June sales improved over last year’s levels, contributing to the year-to-date gain of seven per cent. This was possible thanks to the boost in new listings in June. However, the gains in new listings did little to impact the inventory levels, which remained consistent with levels reported last year and are 44 per cent lower than levels we typically see in June.

With nearly one and a half months of supply, conditions continue to favour the seller, driving further price gains this month. In June, the unadjusted benchmark price was $571,100, an increase over last month and nearly nine per cent higher than last year’s levels. Like Airdrie, the price growth was strongest for apartment-style units, which are also the most affordable products available in the town.

Okotoks

Sales in June slowed compared to last year, mostly due to a pullback in the detached sector. Sales activity has been somewhat restricted due to the limited supply options. As of June, there were 81 units in inventory, 56 per cent lower than levels we typically see in the month, and detached supply is nearly 63 per cent lower.

Persistently tight market conditions have kept prices elevated compared to last year. While there has been some monthly fluctuation, year-to-date prices are nearly nine per cent higher than last year’s levels.

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

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Calgary home sales remain robust despite supply shortages in lower price ranges

June 3, 2024

Resilient Sales with a Slight Dip | May saw 3,092 resale home sales, which is nearly 1% below last year's record but 34% higher than long-term trends for May. The slight dip in sales is mainly due to fewer lower-priced detached and semi-detached homes available.

Shift Towards Higher-Priced Homes | While new listings increased by almost 19% to 4,333 units, much of this growth was in higher price ranges. This led to a decline in sales of lower-priced homes due to limited supply options.

Modest Inventory Gains and Seller's Market | The increase in new listings relative to sales caused the sales-to-new listings ratio to drop to 71%, leading to a slight year-over-year inventory gain. However, overall inventory levels are still about half of what is typical for May, and the market continues to favor sellers with just one month of supply.

Price Growth Across the City | Seller market conditions have driven price growth across all city districts. The unadjusted total residential benchmark price in May reached $605,300, which is nearly 1% higher than last month and 10% higher than May of the previous year.

Housing Market Facts

Detached | The gain in detached sales for homes priced over $700,000 was not enough to offset pullbacks across the lower price ranges, as year-over-year sales declined by seven per cent. At the same time, new listings rose enough to cause the sales-to-new-listings ratio to drop to 68 per cent, supporting inventory growth. However, inventory levels for homes priced below $600,000 continued to fall, accounting for only 13 per cent of the detached market.

With just over one month of supply, the detached market continues to favour the seller, and prices continue to rise. As of May, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $761,800, over one per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than prices reported last year. Prices improved across all districts, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring in the most affordable districts.

Semi-Detached | The year-over-year decline in sales did not offset earlier gains, as year-to-date sales rose by nearly 11 per cent. Like the detached sector, we have also seen improved levels of new listings come onto the market, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to drop to 72 per cent and driving some gains in inventory levels.

Nonetheless, the market continues to favour the seller with one month of supply. The persistently tight market conditions continue to drive up prices. The benchmark price reached $678,000 in May, over one per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than last May.

 Read The Full Report HERE

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Price growth persists in Calgary as seller's market prevails

May 1, 2024

Sales Growth and Market Trends | Despite a slight easing in the pace of growth compared to earlier in the year, sales in April increased by seven per cent compared to last year. This growth is significant as it remains 37 per cent higher than long-term trends for the month. The data also indicates that much of the growth in sales is focused on relatively more affordable, higher-density products.

New Listings and Inventory Dynamics | April saw an 11 per cent gain in new listings compared to last year, but this increase was only three per cent higher than long-term trends. The rise in new listings helped prevent further deterioration of the inventory situation, but inventory levels are still 16 per cent below last year and significantly lower than traditional levels for April. Notably, the decline in supply has been driven by lower-priced homes, while there's been supply growth in higher-priced properties.

Market Conditions and Seller Advantage | With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 83 per cent and a months of supply of less than one month, market conditions strongly favour sellers. This indicates high demand relative to supply, which is driving further price gains in the market.

Price Trends and Affordability Impact | The unadjusted total residential benchmark price reached $603,700 in April, marking a one per cent gain over the previous month and nearly a 10 per cent increase compared to last year. Price gains were observed across all property types and districts, with the most robust growth occurring in the more affordable districts of the city. This suggests that persistently high-interest rates are influencing demand toward more affordable products in the market, while listing growth is focused on higher-priced properties.

Housing Market Facts

Detached | Detached home sales rose by one per cent in April compared to last year. Sales gains in the higher price ranges offset the steep decline for homes priced below $600,000, which is related to the lack of listings in the lower price ranges. While detached new listings did report a year-over-year gain of 10 per cent, detached homes priced below $600,000 saw new listings decline by 34 per cent.

Adjustments in sales and inventory levels caused the months of supply to fall further this month. The less than one-month supply reflects a market favouring the seller, driving further price growth. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $749,000, over one per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than April 2023 levels. Year-over-year gains were the highest in the city's most affordable districts.

Semi-Detached | Sales activity continued to rise in April, contributing to the nearly 18 per cent year-to-date growth in sales. The growth in sales was partly due to gains in new listings. However, the growth in new listings did little to change the low inventory situation, as the months of supply remained below one month for the second month in a row.

The persistently tight market conditions have caused further price gains. In April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $668,400, nearly two per cent higher than last month and 13 per cent higher than levels reported last year. Year-over-year price gains ranged from a high of 23 per cent in the East district to a low of 10 per cent in the City Centre.

Read The Full Report HERE

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Canada’s luxury real estate market eased into spring with modest sales gains across key metropolitan cities, as the dynamic between prospective home sellers and buyers improved, and pricing expectations continued to come into alignment. Despite strengthening consumer confidence and an increase in early-stage market engagement in the initial months of 2024, the expectation of additional property listings supply and potential interest rate declines prompted some buyers and sellers to defer transactions into the spring market. As a result, the country’s major metropolitan areas are expected to see a moderate improvement in sales activity across the luxury and conventional markets in the months ahead.


“Over the past two years, as conventional and luxury real estate market conditions softened under the influence of climbing interest rates and changes to taxes and regulations relating to home ownership, persistent tension defined the interactions between home sellers holding onto lofty pricing expectations from previous peaks, and buyers seeking properties priced for the current market. This stand-off slowed transactional momentum in several of Canada’s major metropolitan luxury real estate markets in 2023, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, where hyper-inflation of luxury housing prices was the previous norm,” says Don Kottick, President and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “Luxury market dynamics at the start of 2024 reflect a progressive shift in consumer psychology: sellers are now engaging in the market with more realistic pricing strategies, and in some cases, greater motivation to sell. This is setting the stage for productive negotiations with buyers and investors. We expect to see higher transactional volumes and improved market fluidity throughout the spring market.”

According to Kottick, Alberta’s luxury real estate market has continued to defy national trends and outperform other major metropolitan areas as its major cities, Calgary and Edmonton, continue to attract new residents motivated by favourable costs of living, comparatively affordable top-tier home prices and a dynamic business climate.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Toronto
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: Spring 2024 State of Luxury Report, consumer dynamics in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) evolved in the first quarter of 2024, setting the stage for measured sales gains and a balanced market this spring. As the price expectations of home sellers and prospective buyers came into better alignment, both pre-transactional and sales activity increased across the region’s luxury market. As a result, residential real estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) between January 1–March 31 climbed 18% year-over-year from the first quarter of 2023. In these preliminary months of the year, there were no property sales over $10 million recorded on Multiple Listings Service (MLS), in contrast to the single property sold in the same period of 2024. Overall GTA residential sales over $1 million rose 11% year-over-year.

Vancouver
Vancouver’s luxury residential real estate market experienced a notable increase in pre-transactional activity in the first quarter of 2024, as consumer and real estate industry confidence continued to strengthen within a market that remained in balance. However, a significant cohort of prospective purchasers continued to await a wider selection of property listings inventory in the spring market to follow. As a result, residential sales over $4 million were down 17% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024, with none of these recorded over $10 million on MLS compared to four transactions in the first quarter of 2023. Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales were largely on par with previous year’s levels, with a marginal 1% year-over-year shortfall.

Montréal
Luxury sales activity in Montreal reflected a stronger-than-anticipated start to 2024, as residential sales over $1 million between January 1–March 31 increased 53% year-over-year within a market that maintained balanced conditions overall. Residential real estate sales over $4 million were on par with first-quarter 2023 levels at eight units sold.

Calgary
Record in-migration, a bold economy and soaring end-consumer and investor confidence in housing continued to strengthen Calgary’s luxury real estate market performance in the first quarter of 2024. Between January 1–March 31, residential sales over $1 million surged 63% year-over-year, positioning the city as one of Canada’s most dynamic and top-performing luxury markets. $4 million-plus sales were also up year-over-year in the first quarter to two properties sold, in contrast to the quiet market experienced in the first quarter of 2023.


*Disclaimer
The information contained in this report references market data from MLS boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada or Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document

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March reflects strong seller's market and price increases

City of Calgary, April 1, 2024 – March sales rose to 2,664 units, a 10 per cent year-over-year gain and much higher than long-term trends. While new listings did pick up over last month, the 3,172 units were still below what we typically see in March and not enough relative to sales to drive any change in the supply situation. In March, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84 per cent, and the months of supply fell below one month.

“We have not seen March conditions this tight since 2006, which is also the last time we reported high levels of interprovincial migration and a months-of-supply below one month," said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Moreover, we are entering the third consecutive year of a market favouring the seller as the two-year spike in migration has driven up demand and contributed to the drop in re-sale and rental supply. Given supply adjustments take time, it is not a surprise that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices.” 

Inventory levels have declined across properties priced below $1,000,000, with the steepest declines occurring for homes priced below $500,000. In March, there were 2,532 units in inventory, 22 per cent lower than last year and half the levels we traditionally see in March.

In March, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price rose to $597,600, a two per cent gain over last month and nearly 11 per cent higher than last year. Prices have increased across all property types, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring for the relatively more affordable row and apartment-style homes.   

Detached

Detached home sales rose in March but were likely limited by the level of new listings coming onto the market. New listings in March were 1,386 units, compared to the 1,151 sales, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to rise to 83 per cent. Inventories also remained relatively stable compared to last month but were 24 per cent lower than last year’s levels and nearly 60 per cent lower than long-term trends for March. Inventory levels dropped across all price ranges, but the most significant fall was in the lower price point. Overall, 71 per cent of the available inventory in March was priced above $700,000. 

Low inventories compared to sales caused the months of supply to drop below one month, driving further price gains. The unadjusted detached benchmark price rose to $739,700, a monthly gain of nearly three per cent and a year-over-year gain of 14 per cent. The largest year-over-year gains occurred in the most affordable North East and East districts.

Semi-Detached

Supply availability continues to weigh on the semi-detached sector of the market. In March, 260 new listings were met with 250 sales, causing the sale-to-new listings ratio to rise to 96 per cent. This prevented inventories from improving, and the months of supply dropped below one month. Inventory declines have been driven mainly by properties priced below $600,000.

Limited supply and growing demand drove further price gains in March. The unadjusted benchmark price reached $658,000, nearly three per cent higher than last month and a 14 per cent gain over last March. Prices rose across all districts in the city, with year-over-year gains ranging from a low of 11 per cent in the highest-priced area of the City Centre to 25 per cent in the lowest-priced market in the East district.

Row

Both sales and new listings rose in March. However, with 536 new listings and 449 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84 per cent, preventing any significant monthly change in inventory levels. With 355 units available, inventory levels were 12 per cent below last year’s and 53 per cent below long-term trends for March. The decline in inventory levels was driven by properties priced below $400,000, as inventory levels rose 35 per cent for units priced above $400,000. 

The unadjusted benchmark price trended up in March, reaching $448,700, a monthly gain of nearly three per cent and over 20 per cent higher than levels reported at this time last year. The higher-priced City Centre reported the slowest growth in benchmark prices, with the highest growth reported in the city's most affordable districts.

Apartment Condominium

Sales in March reached 814 units, contributing to the first quarter’s record-high sales of 1,940 units, nearly 31 per cent higher than last year. New listings also improved throughout the first three months of the year, but with a March sales-to-new-listings ratio of 82 per cent and a months-of-supply of one month, conditions favoured apartment condominium sellers. 

Demand for lower-priced homes has supported the growth of apartment-style properties, but the tight conditions have also contributed to further price gains. In March, the benchmark prices reached $337,700, over two per cent higher than last month and 17 per cent higher than levels reported last March.

 

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

March reported 203 sales and 218 new listings. While both new listings and sales improved, with a sales-to-new listings ratio of 93 per cent, inventory levels were 22 per cent below last year and 56 per cent below typical March levels. 

With less than one month of supply, it is not surprising that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In March, the benchmark price reached $540,400, a monthly gain of two per cent and a year-over-year increase of over nine per cent. Prices improved across all property types, with stronger year-over-year gains for the relatively lower-priced row and apartment-style products.

Cochrane

Following a slower start to the year, sales in March rose to nearly the same level of new listings coming onto the market, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio up to 99 per cent. This also contributed to further declines in inventory levels, and the months of supply dropped to just over one month. 

As of March, the total residential benchmark price reached $555,300, a monthly gain of over one per cent and a year-over-year increase of nearly 12 per cent. Prices rose across all property types, and detached prices pushed above $650,000 for the first time.

Okotoks

Okotoks continues to struggle with supply as the 71 new listings that came on the market this month were met with 65 sales, preventing any improvement in inventory levels. There were only 54 units available in March, a year-over-year decline of 10 per cent and nearly 70 per cent below long-term trends for the month. 

Limited supply and strong sales caused the months of supply to fall below one month, and March was the lowest March reported since 2006. Persistently tight conditions drove further price growth this month, as the total residential benchmark price rose to $610,700, a monthly gain of one per cent and a year-over-year increase of nine per cent. Prices have been rising for all property types, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring for semi-detached and row properties.

 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package

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Low inventory and high demand drive price gains in February

 
March 1, 2024

Rising Sales and New Listings | Despite a rise in new listings in February, sales also increased significantly, by nearly 23% compared to the previous year, reaching a total of 2,135 units. This suggests a healthy level of activity in the housing market.

High Sales-to-New Listings Ratio | The sales-to-new listings ratio remained exceptionally high at 79%, indicating strong demand relative to supply. This high ratio has kept inventories near historic lows, contributing to a competitive market environment.

Low Inventory Levels and Tight Market Conditions | The months of supply fell to just over one month, signaling very tight market conditions. Low supply coupled with high demand has contributed to price gains in Calgary, particularly in homes priced under $500,000, where inventories fell by 31% compared to the previous year.

Price Gains and Varied Growth Rates Across Districts | The unadjusted detached benchmark price in February was $585,000, representing a gain of over two per cent compared to the previous month and over 10% higher than the previous year. Price growth rates varied across districts, with the most affordable East district experiencing the highest year-over-year growth at 25%, while the City Centre reported the slowest growth at under five per cent.
Housing Market Facts

DETACHED | In February, 1,195 new listings came onto the market, of which 75 per cent were priced over $600,000. While new listings did improve over last month in line with seasonal expectations, levels are still below typical levels for February. At the same time, sales in February rose to 954 units, a year-over-year gain of 20 per cent. The growth in sales was driven by where we saw listings growth, but with a sales-to-new listings ratio of nearly 80 per cent, inventory levels were near record lows for February.

Exceptionally tight market conditions drove further price growth. In February, the unadjusted detached benchmark price rose to $721,300, nearly three per cent higher than last month and over 13 per cent higher than last February. While prices rose across every district, the most significant year-over-year gains occurred in the North East and East districts.

SEMI-DETACHED | Last month’s rise in listings compared to sales was short-lived, as the 223 new listings this month were met with 191 sales, driving up the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 86 per cent. This prevented any significant change to the low inventory situation and caused the months of supply to fall to just over one month.

In February, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $639,100, a monthly gain of over two per cent and 13 per cent higher than last year. Year-over-year price gains ranged from a low of 10 per cent in the City Centre to over 26 per cent in the East district.

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January sees strong sales fueled by boost in new listings

 
February 1, 2024
Sales Growth | January sales saw a significant increase to 1,650 units, surpassing last year's levels and long-term trends.

New Listings Impact | The growth in sales was attributed to a rise in new listings, totaling 2,137 units. Notably, the largest gains occurred for homes priced above $700,000.

Low Inventory Situation | Despite the rise in new listings, the city's housing inventory remains low, with 2,150 units, nearly 49% below the long-term average for January, contributing to supply challenges.

Market Tightness and Price Growth | The market remains tight with a 1.3 months supply in January, leading to upward pressure on home prices.

Housing Market Facts

DETACHED | A boost in new listings helped support stronger sales this month. However, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 77 per cent, there was minimal change in the low inventory situation reported in the detached sector. New listings rose for all homes priced above $500,000, but the largest gains occurred in the over $700,000 market segment. Low inventory levels compared to sales prevented any improvement in the months of supply, which at 1.4 months was lower than levels reported last month and last January.

The exceptionally tight market conditions continued to drive further price growth. In January, the unadjusted detached price reached $702,200, nearly one per cent higher than last month and nearly 13 per cent higher than prices reported last year. Year-over-year price gains ranged from a low of 10 per cent in the City Centre and South East districts to a 27 per cent gain in the East district of the city.

SEMI-DETACHED | With 223 new listings and 131 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 59 per cent, the lowest level reported since 2020 and significantly improved over the 82 per cent average reported in 2023. The sudden shift did cause inventories to improve over the last month, but they remain well below long-term trends.

The unadjusted benchmark price in January was $625,000, slightly lower than last month but over 11 per cent higher than last January. The monthly decline was driven mainly by adjustments in the higher-priced districts of the West and City Centre.

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Top-Tier Real Estate 2023: Year in Review

Canada’s metropolitan luxury real estate market evolved over the course of 2023 as buyers emerged from the sidelines with newly altered housing preferences and sharpened priorities, as well as negotiating power that steadily increased as the year progressed. Although overall sales activity was subdued by a volley of stressors that ranged from economic and geopolitical shocks to interest rate hikes, persistent inflation and regulatory changes, high-end buyers remained engaged and strategic.  By the end of 2023, as segments of the country’s major metropolitan markets saw softening prices, and an increase in inventory and conditions that leaned in favour of buyers, the collective resilience and preparation of affluent home buyers and investors became apparent. Following years of unyielding constraints on luxury housing supply, affluent buyers and investors were primed to seize opportunities for upward housing mobility in a favourable market with replenished inventory and still-limited competition, foreshadowing strategic sales activity in early 2024.

“In the aftermath of an era marked by soaring housing prices across Canada’s largest cities, the conventional and luxury real estate market continues to shift towards a period of opportunity for home buyers and investors. While prices remained resilient in the country’s most prestigious neighbourhoods for the better part of 2023, those areas in which new property listings began to accumulate are now seeing softening prices, and a greater willingness from sellers to adjust to market realities. Meanwhile, prospective luxury property buyers and investors have been strategically preparing for the right opportunity,” says Don Kottick, President and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.  “As properties are listed by motivated sellers in early 2024, buyers will have more options, considerable negotiating power and will face less competition than in years past. This is a window of opportunity for luxury buyers and ‘up-sizers’ to purchase a home to meet their lifestyle and investment needs before interest rates fall, competition stiffens and the market swings in the opposite direction.”

According to Kottick, market conditions have momentarily shifted the lifestyle and investment preferences of every generation of luxury homebuyer in favour of single family homes across Canada’s largest urban markets. Elevated condominium prices, rising maintenance fees and carrying costs, as well as unpredictable government regulation of the rental market have spurred buyers to assess the relative benefits of single family home ownership. Although softening competition and prices will offer motivated luxury condominium buyers with favourable opportunities in the near-term, Kottick maintains that the fundamentals of Canada’s luxury condominium market remain sound, and demand for developments bearing internationally-acclaimed luxury brands and meeting a global standard for luxury architecture and design will remain particularly resilient. Record-high population growth, demographic pressures, and the attractiveness of a “lock-and-leave” lifestyle will continue to support demand for condominium housing in the longer term.


MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Greater Toronto Area

According to data released by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, luxury sales activity in the Greater Toronto Area (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto and York) remained calm and confident throughout 2023 as high-end buyers strategically repositioned themselves to capitalize on emerging opportunities. Although residential real estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) experienced a 20% year-over-year decline overall, ultra-luxury sales over $10 million on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) were stable compared to 2022 levels with a nominal 5% shortfall. $4 million-plus sales of single family homes were down 22% year-over-year, while attached home and condominium sales over $4 million saw modest annual gains of 8% and 10% respectively. Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales were down 19% year-over-year in 2023.

Vancouver

Vancouver’s luxury real estate market experienced a dramatic transformation over the course of 2023, as single family homes emerged as a focal point for luxury buyers. Despite fluctuating consumer sentiment over the course of the year, residential sales transactions over $4 million closed the year 8% above 2022 levels, while sales over $10 million saw a significant 43% annual increase, buoyed by an uptick in ultra-luxury transactions in the third quarter of the year. Overall residential sales over $1 million fell 5% short of 2022 levels. Although the city’s luxury condominium and attached home sales over $4 million fell 36% and 33% year-over-year respectively, $4 million-plus single family home sales were up 14% year-over-year. Ultra-luxury single family home sales over $10 million on Multiple Listings Service (MLS) increased 36%. Overall in 2023, residential real estate sales over $1 million fell 5% short of 2022 levels.

Calgary

Calgary’s luxury real estate market continued to surpass the performance of Canada’s largest major metropolitan areas in 2023, as buoyant economic prospects, robust job gains and affordable property prices attracted record-setting net interprovincial migration and local housing demand. Positive consumer and investor sentiment set the tone for the city’s top-tier market, and residential sales over $1 million increased 13% year-over-year from 2022 levels. Sales over $4 million gained ground with nine properties sold, up from six properties sold in 2022. $1 million-plus single family and attached homes sales saw 12% and 14% annual sales gains, respectively, while condominium sales over $1 million climbed 26% year-over-year.

Montreal

Luxury sales activity in Montreal was uneven over the course of 2023, with an uptick in activity over the summer months before transitioning to a more balanced market towards the end of the year. $4 million-plus residential real estate sales experienced a 22% annual decline, while sales over $1 million fell 14%. Single family and attached home sales over $1 million were down 14% and 6% year-over-year respectively, while $1 million-plus condominium sales saw a more pronounced 21% annual decline.

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The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) is pleased to announce the release of its highly anticipated 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report. This comprehensive report, prepared by CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie, offers a detailed analysis of Calgary's economic and housing market trends and surrounding areas for the upcoming year.
 
CREB® Unveils 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report

The report delves into the impact of rising lending rates on the housing sector, as buyers looked for more affordable housing options, and some potential sellers held back from listing to navigate the challenges posed by higher lending rates.
 
Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie underscores this dynamic, stating, "Despite higher rates, 2023 was a year of relatively strong sales thanks to a robust labour market and strong migration. The challenge was limited supply, especially for low-priced homes with the strongest demand. This resulted in significant price growth with the largest gains in our lowest-priced homes.”
 
As the report looks ahead to 2024, Lurie anticipates another strong year for sales, stating, "We expect potential buyers, who were on the sidelines due to limited supply choices, to re-enter the market as lending rates ease and listings improve. At the same time, interprovincial migration and a healthy labour market should continue to support stronger sales activity.”
 
Supply remains an issue this year, but gains in new home starts and new listings are expected to support some modest gains.
 
“Conditions are not expected to be as tight as in 2023," Lurie said, "but supply growth takes time, and sellers’ market conditions are expected to persist through the spring, driving further price growth in 2024.”
 
Supply growth is anticipated to be driven mainly by upper price ranges, decelerating the pace of price growth for higher-priced properties. Meanwhile, lower-priced properties are expected to face continued tight conditions, contributing to sustained price gains.
 
The Calgary Real Estate Board remains committed to providing valuable insights to industry professionals and the public, fostering informed decision-making in the ever-evolving real estate landscape.
 
Click here for the full CREB® 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report.

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Strong migration and low supply drive Calgary housing prices in 2023

Sales in 2023 did ease relative to last year's peak, but with 27,416 sales, levels were still far higher than long-term trends and activity reported before the pandemic. While sales stayed relatively strong, there was a notable shift in activity toward more affordable apartment condominiums style homes.

“Higher lending rates dampened housing demand this year, but thanks to strong migration levels, housing demand remained relatively strong, especially for affordable options in our market,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “At the same time, supply levels were low compared to the demand throughout the year, resulting in stronger than expected price growth.”

Inventory levels were persistently below long-term trends for the city throughout most of the year, averaging a 44 per cent decline over the 10-year average. We also saw the months of supply remain well below two months throughout most of the year across homes priced below $1,000,000.

The persistently tight conditions contributed to our city's new record high price. While the average annual benchmark price growth did slow from 12 per cent in 2022 to nearly six per cent growth in 2023, the price growth was still relatively strong especially compared to some markets in the country. 

Detached

With an annual decline of nearly 20 per cent, the detached market saw the most significant decline in sales activity. While sales did improve for homes priced above $700,000, limited supply choices in the lower price ranges caused consumers to turn to alternative housing styles. Despite some recent gains in higher-priced new listings, inventories have remained near record lows, and the months of supply have remained relatively low throughout 2023.

The persistently tight market conditions have supported further price growth for detached homes, albeit at a slower pace than last year. On average, the benchmark price rose by nearly eight per cent in 2023, with the most significant gains occurring in the city's most affordable districts.
 

Semi-Detached

Like the detached sector, year-over-year sales growth since May was not enough to offset the pullbacks at the beginning of the year, leaving 2023 sales down by 10 per cent. The decline in sales was driven by pullbacks for homes priced under $500,000, while sales improved for higher-priced properties. The decline in the lower range was primarily due to limited supply choices, preventing stronger sales.

Persistently tight market conditions this year caused prices to trend up throughout most of the year. On an annual basis, the benchmark price rose by seven per cent over last year—a slower gain than the 12 per cent reported in 2022, but still relatively strong. Price growth ranged from a low of six per cent in the city centre to over 16 per cent in the east district.
 

Row

Limited supply choices in the lower price ranges contributed to the pullback in sales in 2023. Annual sales declined by over 11 per cent despite rising sales for homes priced above $400,000. While new listings did show signs of improving in the second half of the year, all of the gains were reported in the higher price ranges, causing relatively more balanced conditions in the upper price ranges versus the sellers’ market conditions in the lower price ranges.

Conditions favoured the seller throughout the year, supporting an annual benchmark price gain of over 13 per cent. Prices improved across each district, ranging from a low of 11 per cent in the city centre to over 20 per cent price growth in both the North East and East districts.
 

Apartment Condominium

Apartment-style properties were the only property type to report a gain in sales this year, resulting in a record high of 7,884. The growth in sales was possible thanks to the higher starting point for inventory levels and gains in new listings. However, conditions tightened throughout the year, favouring the seller and driving price growth.

Apartment condominium prices finally recovered from their 2014 high earlier this year and have pushed above those levels, reaching a new record high of $321,400 by December. On an annual basis, the 2023 benchmark price rose by over 13 per cent, a faster pace than the annual growth levels reported last year.  

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS


Airdrie

Primarily due to pullbacks for detached homes, sales in Airdrie declined by 24 per cent over last year's record high. Low inventory levels and a pullback in new listings have somewhat limited sales. While new listings have risen over last year's levels for the past four months, they are still 24 per cent lower than last year. The decline in sales and new listings ensured inventories remained low this year, declining over last year’s and falling to the lowest annual average levels seen since 2006.

For the third year in a row, conditions in Airdrie have generally favoured the seller. This has driven further price gains this year, albeit at a slower pace. On an annual basis, the benchmark price rose by nearly five per cent. This year, the price growth for row and apartment-style properties has been more than double that reported in the detached and semi-detached sectors.
 

Cochrane

Both sales and new listings in Cochrane fell over last year’s levels. However, recent gains in new listings relative to sales did help support some inventory gains. While inventory levels have improved over the low levels reported last year, they remain over 40 per cent below what we traditionally see in the market.

The recent shifts in new listings relative to sales have helped the months of supply stay above two months since September. However, conditions are still relatively tight, and prices continue to rise. While the growth was stronger in the higher-density sectors of the market, the detached benchmark prices increased by four per cent in 2023 over last year.


Okotoks

Supply has been a challenge in Okotoks, impacting sales and prices. While we have seen some improvements lately regarding the level of new listings compared to sales, inventories have remained near record lows and averaged 63 per cent below long-term trends on an annual basis.

Conditions have remained relatively tight throughout most of the year, especially throughout the busier spring season. Despite some monthly variation, prices generally trended up this year and, on an annual basis, rose by over six per cent.
 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

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